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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

By Marco Lopez

BELIZE CITY, Belize – June 3, 2024

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Their Climate Prediction Center forecasts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of near-normal, and a 5% chance of below-normal.

A total of 17-25 named storms (winds exceeding 39 mph) are expected, with 8-13 becoming hurricanes (winds exceeding 74 mph). Up to 7 could become major hurricanes (Category 3-5, winds exceeding 111 mph). NOAA has high confidence (70%) in these ranges.

A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. (Spanish version) (Image credit: NOAA)

Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a developing La Niña (following El Niño’s decline) are expected to increase activity. A potentially strong West African Monsoon season could fuel stronger, longer-lived storms in the Atlantic basin.

Human-caused climate change warms oceans, increasing storm surge impact and flooding risks for coastal areas. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts El Niño’s end by July-September, promoting La Niña’s favorable conditions for hurricane formation.

A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (Spanish version) (Image credit: NOAA)

The Caribbean, often in the path of powerful storms, faces lagging mitigation and adaptation efforts due to limited financial resources. Climate Spotlight urges citizens in at-risk areas to prepare themselves, their families, and communities for potential storms.

Here are some tips to prepare for this hurricane season:  

Develop a plan: Discuss evacuation routes, communication strategies, and sheltering plans with your family.

Assemble an emergency kit: Include non-perishable food, water, a first-aid kit, medications, flashlights, batteries, and a battery-powered radio.

Stay informed: Monitor weather forecasts from NOAA and local news sources.

Know your evacuation zone: If you live in a low-lying area, research evacuation procedures and plan your route.

Fortify your home: Secure windows, doors and loose outdoor items, and trim trees.

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