By Marco Lopez
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is reporting a 60% chance of a turn to La Nina conditions as we near the end of 2024. A release by the organization earlier this month highlighted the relatively short-term cooling period that is likely to come from the shift.
A much-needed reprieve considering the scorching temperatures felt over recent months.
La Nina brings short-term cooling and opposite conditions from El Nino. Longer-term global warming is not impacted by these seasonable anomalies.
At the time, a waning El Nino, considered a “neutral El Nino” continues to prevail but the WMO is indicating a 55% chance of a transition from that current neutral condition to La Nina condition between September – November 2024.
The likelihood of the shift to La Nina rises to 60% from October 2024 to February 2025. The WMO update states the chance of El Nino redeveloping during this time period is “negligible.”
The effects of La Nina depend largely on its intensity, duration, and time of the year it develops. As a general rule of thumb, it opposes El Nino conditions but human-induced climate change has caused these phenomena to occur in the context of continually increasing global temperature.
WMO Secretary-General, Celeste Saula commented, “Since June 2023 we have seen an extended streak of exceptional global land and sea surface temperature. Even if a short-term cooling La Niña event does emerge, it will not change the long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”
For the Caribbean, Central America, South America, the northern Greater Horn of Africa and Sahel, parts of Southeast Asia, and the Central Maritime Continent predictions of large-scale rainfall patterns in part, along with the typical impacts observed during the early stages of La Nina conditions are expected.
