- Global emissions could fall 12% by 2035, still far below the cuts needed to meet the 1.5°C goal.
- With adequate finance and technology, developing nations could cut emissions by 14%, but only 10% without support.
- The world must accelerate action and turn pledges into policy to avoid a worsening climate emergency.
By Marco Lopez
Released on the opening day of COP30, an update to the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Synthesis Report was issued today by the UNFCCC Secretariat, Simon Stiell, including additional data on NDCs submitted up to November 9, 2025.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the climate action plans submitted by countries or Parties under the Paris Agreement every five years. The synthesis report, originally published on October 28, 2025, tracks collective progress toward reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.
Since the 2025 synthesis report was first released, 49 Parties have submitted 22 new or revised NDCs, bringing the total to 86 NDCs from 113 Parties, according to today’s release. Based on current NDCs, even if all countries meet their pledges, the world will only cut total emissions by about 12% from 2019 levels — still far short of the approximately 45% cut needed by 2030 to stay on track for the 1.5°C goal.
If the conditional targets that many developing countries include in their NDCs are actually achieved, emissions can be cut by 14% below 2019 levels by 2035. These conditional promises are based on developing nations receiving the international support, such as climate finance, needed to realize them. Without finance and technology transfer, emission cuts will only fall by 10% from 2019. If land-use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) is not considered, this figure falls to 7%.
While the report shows progress, it is not nearly enough to limit warming to the Paris goals. The difference between conditional and unconditional scenarios underscores the importance of climate finance.
“Ten years ago in Paris, we were designing the future – aiming to bend the curve of emissions downwards. Today, an update to our NDC Synthesis Report shows: The emissions curve is being bent downwards,” Stiell wrote on LinkedIn following the announcement.
Before the Paris Agreement, global emissions were projected to increase by 20–48% by 2025. The current data reflects a narrowing gap — but the pace must accelerate.
“Every fraction of a degree of heating avoided will save millions of lives and billions of dollars in economic damage. But we must move much, much faster on both reduction of emissions and strengthening resilience,” Stiell added.
The science tells us that a 12% drop in emissions is not enough to safeguard the world — and particularly the most vulnerable — from dangerous climate impacts. Greater ambition is needed in NDCs – this is one of the calls being made at COP30.
But even so, if this is realized, unless the world moves pledges into policy and supports developing countries to achieve their climate goals, the world remains on a path toward a worsening climate emergency.
