By Marco Lopez
A new study has found that carbon offset programs have largely failed to deliver real greenhouse gas reductions — and may be hindering the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels needed to meet Paris Agreement climate targets. Climate-vulnerable countries host the majority of offset projects but benefit the least, while rich emitters use carbon credits to justify delaying real decarbonization.
Carbon offsets are tradable credits from projects that claim to reduce emissions by removing or storing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
“Paper reductions” with little climate impact
After reviewing 10 years of data, the authors — led by climate scientist Joseph Romm — found that most offsets are tied to projects that would have occurred anyway. This means many credits do not represent genuine emission reductions.
Businesses and countries trade carbon credits, each representing one tonne of carbon dioxide. Offsets have become a cornerstone of corporate climate policy — a justification to maintain the status quo.
Offsets act like an “escape hatch” for those wanting to continue emitting fossil fuels. Companies and countries pay for projects elsewhere and claim to cut their own emissions. Because offset projects are based on hypothetical projections, developers can exaggerate the scope of harm avoided, claim emissions reductions that are not real, and earn more credits than deserved.
The result: polluters are paying for paper reductions that do not meaningfully help the climate.
Overstating climate benefits and issuing “empty” credits continue unchecked — with over 1.5 billion carbon credits currently in circulation.
Countries in the Global South are often exploited because they still house large carbon-rich ecosystems. When offsets become a source of revenue, wealthy nations and corporations take advantage — generating credits for their own climate claims while local communities see little to no benefit.
Because they fail to meet their climate promise, low-quality offsets ultimately do more harm than good.
Reform pressure grows ahead of COP30
At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, finalizing global rules for carbon trading under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement will be a major focus. These rules are intended to ensure international credits are traded without double-counting.
Carbon offsets should no longer be used as a substitute for direct emission cuts, the study concludes — though the authors acknowledge the mechanism can reform.
“Offsets could help if they fund projects that remove carbon permanently and are verified transparently,” the paper notes.
Real climate progress requires real emission cuts
If the world is to keep warming within safe limits, companies and governments must rapidly reduce emissions at the source — not rely on questionable carbon math. The authors urge negotiators at COP30 to confront the flaws that have turned offsets into a loophole and ensure the system delivers verifiable climate benefits. The lesson is clear: carbon credits must no longer be a license to pollute. The era of real decarbonization can’t wait.
